The first leg of the Europa League 2025/26 qualification playoff between Midtjylland (Denmark) and KuPS (Finland) will take place on August 21 at the Herning Arena. Midtjylland vs. KuPS: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Srdjan Jovanovic (Serbia)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2023/24–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 32;
Average yellow cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 18;
Penalties – 38%.
For the Danes, this is familiar territory — a team accustomed to reaching the group stages of European competitions. For KuPS, though, making the Europa League proper would be historic: the Finnish club has already secured European football into the autumn for the first time. The opening leg in Herning is likely to decide the tie.
Midtjylland are unbeaten in 14 matches (excluding friendlies), including a convincing aggregate victory over Fredrikstad (5:1). Earlier they scraped past Hibernian, but this time they looked far more assured. Last season they finished runners-up in the Superliga, just a single point behind champions Copenhagen. In Europe Midtjylland are consistent performers: four group-stage appearances in the last five years, including in the Champions League. Their domestic campaign has started steadily rather than spectacularly (nine points from five rounds), but the attacking line continues to function well. At home, Midtjylland have won seven of their last nine games, and in Europa League play-offs, home fixtures often prove decisive.
KuPS won last year’s Finnish championship and began this season’s European adventure in the Champions League. After beating Milsami, they fell to Kairat, before edging Latvian side RFS in the Europa League qualifiers, ensuring at least a place in the Conference League. They arrive in fine form with five consecutive victories, including a 2:1 win over domestic leaders Inter Turku. However, their away record in Europe remains problematic: three defeats in their last five trips abroad.
The gulf in experience is clear. Midtjylland are used to facing top-level opposition and have eliminated far stronger sides, whereas KuPS are only starting to find their feet on this stage. The Finns have momentum and could spring a surprise, but Herning presents a stern test: the Danes are stronger across the board, and for KuPS even scoring a goal could be difficult. In five of their last seven away matches in Europe, they have failed to find the net.
